Weifu Hi-tech (000581): Short-term performance pressure, long-term benefit upgrade of emission standards

Weifu Hi-tech (000581): Short-term performance pressure, long-term benefit upgrade of emission standards

Matters: The company’s 2018 revenue was downgraded for half a year3.

3% is 87.

200 million, achieving net profit of 2.4 billion attributable to mothers (degradation in ten years).

82%), folded into one 2.
.

37 yuan, net of 20 non-attributed net profit.

1.5 billion (13 downgrades each year.

24%), with an expected average return on equity of 15.

5% (previously 3 digits down).

The dividend plan is to pay a cash dividend of 12 yuan for every 10 shares.

Ping An’s perspective: In 2018, the company deducted 2 billion in non-net profit and contributed 2 billion in net profit from equity (including Bosch Automobile Diesel contributed 1.2 billion and Zhonglian Electronics contributed 3.

700 million, entrusted wealth management to contribute 3.

100 million), after deducting non-subsidiary business from the actual replacement, from 4 in 2017.

7 billion to 0.

6 billion.

The significant decrease in the profit of the consolidated business in 2018 was mainly due to the decline in revenue of the income side, especially the fuel injection system, the decline in the profitability of the fuel injection system and the exhaust gas treatment system, the company’s provision for asset impairment losses increased significantly, and sales, management, and research and development costs increased.And other reasons.

Interest on company income in 2018 3.

3%, gross profit margin dropped from 25% in 2017 to 23 in 2018.

3%, the annual increase in expenses: Of which sales expenses increased by 22% each year, mainly due to wages and the Three Guarantees increase; management costs extended by 8.

4%, which is mainly to stimulate the maximum growth of the fund; it caused the company to accrue asset impairment losses in 20182.

500 million, increasing by 1 every year.

300 million, research and development costs remain flat and increase slightly to 400 million.

Consolidated business analysis-The increase in operating profit of fuel injection systems and the revenue of fuel injection systems decreased by 10%, and gross profit margin decreased by 1.

Three averages reached 29.

2%.

Among them: 1) The revenue of common rail pumps sold to Bosch Automobile Diesel increased slightly several times, from 32 in 2017.

700 million to 34.

4 billion.

2) Weifu Jinning’s profitability rebounded sharply, with a net profit margin of 19 in 2017.

4% to 34%, achieving net profit from 1 in 2017.

2.4 billion to 2 in 2018.

1000000000.

3) It is estimated that the old pump business exceeds 40%. Through the upgrade of the emission standard, the inventory of National III emission diesel vehicles has decreased, and the old pump business is expected to increase and shrink again.

The gross profit margin of the tail gas treatment business remained at a low level of 12%. Weifu Leader ‘s net profit was replaced from 100 million in 2017 to 7456 million in 2018. It is estimated that the switchover of the light truck tail gas treatment system caused Weifu Leader ‘s diesel vehicles.The product structure of the exhaust gas treatment system has changed (the proportion of high gross margin exhaust gas systems supporting internal light trucks such as DOC has shifted and entered the more competitive SCR field). The impact of this change is estimated to persist.

However, the increase in post-processing business brought by the upgrade of non-road machinery emission standards is beneficial to Weifu Lida’s future revenue growth, but it is estimated that profitability will remain low.

Analysis of investment income-Bosch Automobile Diesel’s revenue and net profit reached a record high again, but the increase rate, 2019 pressure on Bosch Automobile Diesel’s revenue from 153 in 2017.

800 million to 15.5 billion in 2018, net interest rate remained high at 22.

8%, contributing 12.
100 million (11 in 2017.
600 million), Bosch Automobile Diesel is the biggest beneficiary of the upgrade of domestic diesel vehicle emission standards, and has become the absolute monopolist of the high-pressure common rail system for diesel vehicles. Its scale, technology, and cost have increased its leading edge and monopolized its long-term stability.

Zhonglian Electronics contributed net profit of equity 3.

700 million, steady growth.

In addition, the company has sufficient cash, and entrusted wealth management to contribute investment income indicators. In 2018, it contributed 3 investment income.

1 billion, a previous major improvement.

Earnings forecast and investment recommendations: In the short term, the company’s category of business is under pressure, and its performance in 2019 may be reduced. In the long term, the company’s business will benefit from the upgrade of the national six 成都桑拿网 emission standards for diesel vehicles and the upgrade of non-road diesel power machinery emission standards. In the longer term, the companyThe layout of in-wheel motors and fuel cell related businesses is expected to bring new growth space.

According to the company’s latest operating conditions, the company’s performance forecast is adjusted to 2019, and in 2020, the net profit in 2021 will be 22.

4 billion, 24.

6 billion, 26.

800 million, corresponding to 2 EPS.

22, 2.

44、2.

66 yuan (expected 2019-2020 performance forecast is 28.

8 billion, 32.

900 million), maintaining the “recommended” level.

Risk reminders: 1) Diesel vehicle production and sales are lower than expected, and related business profits are reduced; 2) Exhaust gas treatment business profitability remains low; 3) Fund utilization efficiency is low; 4) Non-road diesel powered machinery emission standards are upgraded, but the companyThe contribution performance increase did not meet expectations.