Adisseo (600299): Q1 Chain Momentum Exceeds Expectation After Anti-dumping

Adisseo (600299): Q1 Chain Momentum Exceeds Expectation After Anti-dumping

The 2019Q1 performance increased significantly by 38% from the previous month, and the gross profit margin increased from the previous quarter.

The company announced the first quarter report of 2019, and the company achieved operating income of 27 in Q1 2019.

$ 3.3 billion (previously -9%), net of non-attributed net profit2.

8.7 billion (previously -17%, + 38% MoM), with a gross profit margin of 36.

57% (year -3.

93pct, chain +1.

06pct).

The gross profit of functional products is expected to bottom out.

2019Q1 company’s functional products gross profit 6.

4.2 billion, previously -27%, month-on-month.

46%, gross margin ten years -6.

01pct, ring than -0.

48 points.

The decline in VA and methionine prices was the highest in gross profit. The average prices of VA in 18Q1, 18Q4, and 19Q1 were 1,348, 377, and 375 yuan / kg, respectively, and the average price of liquid eggs was 16.

4, 15.

5, 15.

0 yuan / kg.

At present, the output of DSM VA has dropped, the market supply is tight, and the manufacturers have a clear mentality; the price of liquid eggs is still at the bottom, and there is little room for reduction.

We judge that through the continuous increase of the company’s methionine sales, the gross profit of functional products is expected to bottom out.

The growth of specialty products was higher than expected.

2019Q1 company’s special product gross profit 2.

9.5 billion, previously + 7%, + 20% MoM, gross margin +0 per second.

78pct, +8.

At 75pct, the quarter-on-quarter growth of gross profit and gross profit margin all exceeded expectations.

We believe that the reasons mainly include: (1) the synergy effect of the acquisition of Nuanti has gradually emerged; (2) the continuous introduction of new products to the market; (3) although the US dairy crisis 北京夜生活网 has not ended, the US milk price has continued to recover and has exceeded 16USD / 100 pounds.

Beginning with anti-dumping, competition for the expansion of methionine capacity has promoted relaxation.

On April 10, 2019, the Ministry of Commerce conducted an anti-dumping investigation on imported solid methionine originating from Singapore, Malaysia and Japan. At present, the price of solid egg has rebounded to 19.

5 yuan / kg, we believe that the domestic liquid egg penetration rate is also expected to gradually increase, the company as a company that also produces solid egg liquid eggs will fully benefit.

In addition, since the capacity expansion of foreign oligopoly markets is mainly aimed at domestic new capacity, this trend has eased after anti-dumping.

Novozymes has recently announced the cessation of its 深圳spa会所 methionine capacity expansion plan (originally planned to expand 12 replacements in 2020).

We forecast the company’s net profit attributable to mothers in 2019/20/2112.

92/14.

99/17.

4.1 billion, EPS0.

48/0.

56/0.

65 yuan, corresponding to the current price of PE 25.

3/21.8/18.

8x, maintain “Buy” rating.

Risk warning: methionine capacity expansion exceeds expectations; VA price drops