Xugong Machinery (000425): Report quality and profitability are sufficient
Crane business analysis: The industrial structure continues to be optimized. It is expected that the upward trend in the second half of 2019 will continue in 2020. Cranes are the company’s flagship product, and the revenue in the first half of 2019 will account for 36%.
84%, gross profit accounted for 49.
96%, net profit accounted for more than half, of which XCMG heavy car ornaments.
① Benefiting from wind power rush installation, the company’s supply and demand for cranes over 100 tons, in the case of tight production capacity, the company basically limited production of small tonnage volumes below 20 tons, concentrated production of large tonnage volume.
The sales growth rate of automobile cranes before 2019 is 23%, and the tonnage structure of the beneficiary products has moved up. It is expected that the crane lifting speed will significantly exceed the sales growth rate.
② In 2019H1, due to the lack of production capacity and insufficient marketing services, automobile ceilings experienced a downward trend. At the worst, the share fell below 40%.
With the technological transformation to increase production capacity and comprehensively strengthen marketing services, the market share in the second half of 2019 began to rise rapidly, and the monthly data in December 2019 has recovered to about 45%.
However, due to factors, the coefficient of determination of expectations in the first half of the year, so the annual market share in 2019 is only slightly over 40%.
At present, the crane inventory is only about half of the monthly sales in the peak season. The company has been actively preparing for stocks since the resumption of work. We judge that the car crane is expected to stabilize at about 45% in 2020.
High-altitude operation platform business analysis: The customer structure is highly optimized, and the arm sales volume is the first in China in 2019: Of the high-altitude operation platform customers, the proportion of external customers in 2019 has exceeded 90%, and the proportion of XCMG Guanglian Leasing will replace less than 10%; 2020 In January, XCMG leasing accounted for only about 2%. In 2019, the company’s annual sales of aerial work platforms exceeded 6,000 units, of which more than 1,400 arm-type, so that the overall revenue has exceeded 1 billion, and arm-type sales rank among the best in the country.
Looking ahead to 2020, under the dual background of declining rental prices and the major expansion of leading leasers, the domestic aerial work platform industry will usher in a year of fierce competition. Enlarging large-scale leasing companies and controlling risks is the key.
Analysis of overall profitability: There is potential upside, the existing accrual policy is strict, and the profit statement is solid. ① Since 2017, the profitability of construction machinery head companies has continued to be repaired, and the company’s net profit rate has returned to 7 in the first three quarters of 2019.
02%, while at the same time Sany Heavy Industry, Zoomlion’s net interest rate was repaired to 16.
90%, unless we consider the company ‘s business composition, including loaders that have reduced the profitability of the entire industry, we still believe that the company ‘s net profit margin has room to pass up, because the current operating quality is significantly better than the 2010-2011 period.It should not be below the level of two numbers at that stage.
② At the same time, we noticed that the company accrued total asset impairment losses and credit impairment losses in the first three quarters 北京养生会所 of 2019.
0.6 billion, accounting for 2% of revenue in the same period.
56%, while the proportion of Sany Heavy Industry, Zoomlion is 0.
43%, the company’s ratio is significantly higher than its peers, mainly because the company’s account receivables withdrawal ratio is significantly higher than its peers, and accounts receivable more than 3 years, that is, 100% of bad debt provisions, which means to some extentThe quality of the company’s 2019 income statement is very solid.
③ In 2020, the company attached great importance to “reducing costs and increasing efficiency” and listed it as the No. 1 project to realize its profitability recovery.
Industry demand outlook: It is expected that demand will not disappear, but it will only be reclassified. ①Infrastructure investment judgment: We noticed that in 苏州桑拿网 January 2020, new local special debt wassuance 7148.
21 trillion, an increase of 406 each year.
37%; Although it was greatly affected by the epidemic in February, by the end of the day, 1749 new local special bonds had been issued.
71 ppm, a ten-year increase4.
In 2020, the local newly-added special debt target is 3 trillion yuan, an annual increase of 39.
53%. Taking into account the reduction of the capital ratio of some special debt consolidation projects and the fixed asset investment capital, we expect that the growth rate of infrastructure investment in 2020 will try to rise to around 8%.
②Real estate investment judgment: According to the latest report by the Associated Press, there are 20% of the mainstream down payment ratios in the first homes in 8 cities, plus some cities’ provident fund loan loosening policies. We expect to drive real estate sales, thereby driving real estate development investment.We are not pessimistic about real estate investment in 2020.
③ Judgment of the need for replacement: Under normal circumstances, the replacement cycle is expected to continue until 2021; if the implementation of engine environmental protection policies becomes stricter, it will accelerate the replacement of existing equipment with low environmental protection emissions within 10 years of age, thenThe update cycle will be lengthened.
④Export prospects: The company on the right actively optimizes its overseas market strategy, targeting both rapidly growing developing markets and entering large developed markets. It is expected that exports will maintain rapid growth.
Company performance outlook: It is expected to be affected by the epidemic in the first quarter, but it will still have high growth as it is still ① Pre-judgment in the first quarter: Due to the impact of the epidemic, logistics has been interrupted for most of the two months, and is currently gradually recovering. 2The monthly delivery volume is affected; it is expected that most of the projects have not yet resumed at the end, affecting the pace of demand release.
Therefore, we expect that the company ‘s net profit may increase by more than 20% in the first quarter; ② Forecast: Step by step, stimulated by the counter-cyclical adjustment policy, it is expected that the subsequent demand will be released intensively, which will be more conducive to equipment sales and the profitability will rebound.Trends, judged that expectations are still high growth.
Earnings forecast and investment recommendations predict that the company’s revenue for 2019-2021 will be 549.
300 million, net profit attributable to mothers was 38.
Corresponding to the closing price on February 27, 2020, PE is 11 respectively.
Maintain target price of 7.
79 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.
Risk reminder that the duration of the epidemic exceeds expectations, which will further affect the company’s short-term performance